Bottom of the pyramid or BOP markets serve more than 4 billion people that live on $2-4 a day. Prominent success stories such as micro lending in Bangladesh helped make the idea popular that companies can dramatically increase living conditions of millions of people, while making healthy profits. C. K. Prahalad argued in their book Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid that such markets need to be developed differently to traditional approaches in developed economies.
Interestingly, our study from 2018 on how strategic foresight can be leveraged to create new BOP markets, carries also important lessons for companies in more developed markets that are in crisis. When severe crisis hit industries, established value chains are severed, rules of the game are altered and markets need to be reinvented and recreated.
Here our 3Ps model can help.
The 3Ps of Corporate Foresight
In our study we focus on understanding how the successful business development was conducted over time and to which extent it was using the 3Ps of Corporate Foresight:
• Perceiving: Discovering change drivers
• Prospecting: Understanding how systemic effects will create
exponential growth and viable business opportunities
• Probing: Using trial-and-error-learning to develop a viable business
In addition, we use the three paths to business development known to be vital for success in the BOP segment, see figure below. In each case we assess which of the paths have been used.
Case study 1: Business development through corporate foresight at Lifeshelter
Lifeshelter was build on visionary insights from the founder, who gradually refined the solution and business concept to build the success through two iterations in our 3P framework.
Our second case, Kamstrup is an engineering company specialising on smart metering solutions for electricity and district heating systems. Kamstrup is the most structured in the front end. Kamstrup understood early the need for smart metering in Africa was primarily triggered by the need to manage energy supply better to reduce the risk of power cuts. The business development followed a comparably structured process but went also through two iterations.
Case study 2: Business development through corporate foresight at Kamstrup
Our third case study, Arla is a leading dairy company, which had to develop a low cost offering for the African market. While the main challenge was clear from the beginning Arla had to build on all three BOP business development paths to create a successful and sustainable business.
Case study 3: Business development through corporate foresight at Arla